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Gregory Gaultier v Zahed Mohamed (Wed 10 Oct 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-8,11-8,6-11,11-3.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 68,663, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 37,468, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Gregory Gaultier won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 27% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

As Gregory Gaultier has played below his allowed range at 51,569, his level reduction is 8.7% before damping. On the assumption that Gregory Gaultier would normally have been playing at level 62,033 (based on typical behaviour), Zahed Mohamed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to -6.3% and Zahed Mohamed changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes -1.6% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 83%, Zahed Mohamed: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 69%, Zahed Mohamed: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 67,436, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 38,428, level confidence: 73%.