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Douglas Jacobsson v David Freer (Mon 15 Oct 2018)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 11-10,11-9,11-10.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,620, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,542, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 5% better than David Freer.

Douglas Jacobsson won all of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 27% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Douglas Jacobsson actually played at a level of 1,784 and David Freer at a level of 1,400. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to +9.9% and David Freer changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +5.2% and for David Freer becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson is +3.9% and for David Freer is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 62%, David Freer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 56%, David Freer: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,681, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,502, level confidence: 77%.