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Peter Richardson v Angus Baillie (Tue 16 Oct 2018)

Match won by Angus Baillie. Result: 15-7,8-15,15-9,14-16,15-17.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,159, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Angus Baillie: 1,843, level confidence: 60%.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Angus Baillie.

Angus Baillie won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Angus Baillie played 6% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Angus Baillie actually played at a level of 2,057 and Peter Richardson at a level of 1,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Angus Baillie changes to +10.7% and Peter Richardson changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Angus Baillie becomes +5.3% and for Peter Richardson becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Angus Baillie is +4% and for Peter Richardson is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Angus Baillie: 77%, Peter Richardson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Angus Baillie: 69%, Peter Richardson: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,091, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Angus Baillie: 1,919, level confidence: 69%.