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Roger Booker v Joe Richardson (Mon 15 Oct 2018)

Match won by Joe Richardson. Result: 11-15,7-15,3-15.

Starting level for Roger Booker: 878, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joe Richardson: 2,354, level confidence: 57%.
Joe Richardson to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Roger Booker.

Joe Richardson won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Richardson played 114% better than Roger Booker in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joe Richardson was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,393 and 2,354 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joe Richardson played at level 1,881 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Roger Booker is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Richardson: 75%, Roger Booker: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Richardson: 67%, Roger Booker: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Booker: 877, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Joe Richardson: 2,351, level confidence: 67%.