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Matthew Marshall v Philip Waller (Mon 15 Oct 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-8,11-9,6-11,3-11,11-6.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,408, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Philip Waller: 7,149, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Philip Waller.

Matthew Marshall won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 6% better than Philip Waller in this match.

As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 7,909, his level reduction is 4.5% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 8,345 (based on typical behaviour), Philip Waller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -3.7% and Philip Waller changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -1.8% and for Philip Waller becomes +2%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Philip Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is -1.2% and for Philip Waller is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 91%, Philip Waller: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 86%, Philip Waller: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,332, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Philip Waller: 7,268, level confidence: 81%.