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Dan McMahon v David Wallond (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 13-15,10-15,13-15.

Starting level for Dan McMahon: 2,465, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,932, level confidence: 47%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Dan McMahon.

David Wallond won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 35% better than Dan McMahon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,122 and Dan McMahon at a level of 2,315. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +5.9% and Dan McMahon changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +3% and for Dan McMahon becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +2.3% and for Dan McMahon is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 69%, Dan McMahon: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 64%, Dan McMahon: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan McMahon: 2,415, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for David Wallond: 3,000, level confidence: 64%.