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Dafydd Lewis v Mark Webster-Smith (Thu 18 Oct 2018)

Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 15-11,9-15,15-9,15-12.

Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,917, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,990, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Dafydd Lewis.

Dafydd Lewis won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played 22% better than Mark Webster-Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dafydd Lewis actually played at a level of 2,154 and Mark Webster-Smith at a level of 1,771. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to +12% and Mark Webster-Smith changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes +5.7% and for Mark Webster-Smith becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis is +4.3% and for Mark Webster-Smith is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 89%, Mark Webster-Smith: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 79%, Mark Webster-Smith: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,996, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,906, level confidence: 79%.