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David Wallond v Mark Francis (Sat 20 Oct 2018)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 15-6,15-4,15-8.

Starting level for David Wallond: 3,000, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Mark Francis: 1,464, level confidence: 64%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Mark Francis.

David Wallond won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 150% better than Mark Francis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,314 and Mark Francis at a level of 1,325. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +7.2% and Mark Francis changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +3.4% and for Mark Francis becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +2.6% and for Mark Francis is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 80%, Mark Francis: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 72%, Mark Francis: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wallond: 3,072, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mark Francis: 1,416, level confidence: 72%.