Eain Yow Ng v Iker Pajares (Thu 18 Oct 2018)
Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-5,12-10,6-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Eain Yow Ng:
30,909, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Iker Pajares:
30,012, level confidence: 56%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Iker Pajares.
Eain Yow Ng won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played
21% better than Iker Pajares in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eain Yow Ng actually played at a level of
33,549 and Iker Pajares at a level of
27,650. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to +6.9% and Iker Pajares changes to -8.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes +2% and for Iker Pajares becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 82%, Iker Pajares: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 76%, Iker Pajares: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng:
31,429, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Iker Pajares:
29,401, level confidence: 69%.