Baptiste Masotti v Nathan Lake (Thu 18 Oct 2018)
Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
29,739, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,752, level confidence: 62%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Baptiste Masotti.
Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played
56% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of
38,434 and Nathan Lake at a level of
24,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +28% and Nathan Lake changes to -28%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +5.8% and for Nathan Lake becomes -5.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nathan Lake is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 79%, Nathan Lake: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 61%, Nathan Lake: 61%.
A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
31,257, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
30,947, level confidence: 61%.