Joel Makin v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Thu 18 Oct 2018)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 12-10,13-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
47,605, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
65,650, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Joel Makin.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
31% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
64,014 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of
48,822. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +29% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +5.4% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 91%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 67%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 71%.
A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
49,976, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
64,244, level confidence: 71%.