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David Freer v Steven Morley (Mon 22 Oct 2018)

Match won by Steven Morley. Result: 10-11,7-11,9-11.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,432, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Steven Morley: 1,780, level confidence: 67%.
Steven Morley to win as he is currently playing 24% better than David Freer.

Steven Morley won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Morley played 36% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Morley actually played at a level of 1,863 and David Freer at a level of 1,368. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Morley changes to +3.4% and David Freer changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Morley becomes +2.6% and for David Freer becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steven Morley is +1.9% and for David Freer is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Morley: 82%, David Freer: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Morley: 78%, David Freer: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,397, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Steven Morley: 1,811, level confidence: 78%.