Lyndon Cheetham v Dafydd Lewis (Mon 22 Oct 2018)
Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 10-11,11-8,11-6,5-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Lyndon Cheetham:
1,723, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Dafydd Lewis:
2,000, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Dafydd Lewis to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Lyndon Cheetham.
Dafydd Lewis won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played
10% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.
As Dafydd Lewis has played below his allowed range at 1,933, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Dafydd Lewis would normally have been playing at level 1,989 (based on typical behaviour), Lyndon Cheetham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to -2% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to +2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes -1.5% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis is -1.1% and for Lyndon Cheetham is +1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 88%, Lyndon Cheetham: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 86%, Lyndon Cheetham: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham:
1,744, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Dafydd Lewis:
1,975, level confidence: 86%.