Steve Gaylor v Chris Cave (Mon 22 Oct 2018)
Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 7-11,11-6,8-11,4-11.
Starting level for
Steve Gaylor:
1,506, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Cave:
1,731, level confidence: 67%.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Steve Gaylor.
Chris Cave won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played
27% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Cave actually played at a level of
1,817 and Steve Gaylor at a level of
1,435. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to +4.6% and Steve Gaylor changes to -3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes +3.1% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Cave is +2.3% and for Steve Gaylor is -2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 82%, Steve Gaylor: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 78%, Steve Gaylor: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steve Gaylor:
1,471, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Cave:
1,768, level confidence: 78%.