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Craig McIntosh v Nick Hiley (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 7-11,9-11,10-12.

Starting level for Craig McIntosh: 2,691, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,109, level confidence: 58%.
Nick Hiley to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Craig McIntosh.

Nick Hiley won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 39% better than Craig McIntosh in this match.

In this case, Nick Hiley played at level 3,814 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Hiley would normally have been playing at level 3,896 (based on typical behaviour), Craig McIntosh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to 0% and Craig McIntosh changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes 0% and for Craig McIntosh becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Durham & Cleveland Mens Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is 0% and for Craig McIntosh is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 76%, Craig McIntosh: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 73%, Craig McIntosh: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig McIntosh: 2,707, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,103, level confidence: 73%.