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Matthew Marshall v Ben Hedger (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ben Hedger. Result: 7-11,10-12,1-11.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,433, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Hedger: 6,967, level confidence: 48%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Ben Hedger.

Ben Hedger won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Hedger played 89% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Hedger actually played at a level of 10,535 and Matthew Marshall at a level of 5,577. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Hedger changes to +46% and Matthew Marshall changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Hedger becomes +11.6% and for Matthew Marshall becomes -5.7%.

Given Ben Hedger's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.7% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Ben Hedger is +8.1% and for Matthew Marshall is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Hedger: 69%, Matthew Marshall: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Hedger: 46%, Matthew Marshall: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,252, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Ben Hedger: 7,520, level confidence: 46%.