Ray Owens v Alistair Robbie (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Ray Owens: 261, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alistair Robbie: 201, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Alistair Robbie.

Ray Owens won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ray Owens actually played at a level of 303 and Alistair Robbie at a level of 173. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ray Owens changes to +7.5% and Alistair Robbie changes to -7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ray Owens becomes +5.2% and for Alistair Robbie becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Ray Owens is +2.6% and for Alistair Robbie is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 91%, Alistair Robbie: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 78%, Alistair Robbie: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ray Owens: 267, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Alistair Robbie: 196, level confidence: 77%.