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Sean Massie v Rick Scannell (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Sean Massie. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Sean Massie: 303, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rick Scannell: 261, level confidence: 62%.
Sean Massie to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Rick Scannell.

Sean Massie won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sean Massie actually played at a level of 314 and Rick Scannell at a level of 252. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 2.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sean Massie changes to +2.4% and Rick Scannell changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sean Massie becomes +2.4% and for Rick Scannell becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Sean Massie is +1.2% and for Rick Scannell is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sean Massie: 85%, Rick Scannell: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sean Massie: 81%, Rick Scannell: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sean Massie: 306, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Rick Scannell: 257, level confidence: 76%.