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Rick Scannell v James Mortimer (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Rick Scannell: 254, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Mortimer: 213, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Rick Scannell to win as he is currently playing 19% better than James Mortimer.

Rick Scannell won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Rick Scannell has played below his allowed range at 241, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Rick Scannell would normally have been playing at level 252 (based on typical behaviour), James Mortimer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rick Scannell changes to -2.3% and James Mortimer changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rick Scannell becomes -2.3% and for James Mortimer becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Rick Scannell is -1.1% and for James Mortimer is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 89%, James Mortimer: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 85%, James Mortimer: 83%.

Final level for Rick Scannell: 251, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for James Mortimer: 216, level confidence: 83%.