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Matthew Blagg v Duncan Whale (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Duncan Whale. Result: 1-3.

Starting level for Matthew Blagg: 782, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Duncan Whale: 760, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Matthew Blagg to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Duncan Whale.

Duncan Whale won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Duncan Whale actually played at a level of 862 and Matthew Blagg at a level of 690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 10.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Whale changes to +10.4% and Matthew Blagg changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Whale becomes +6.7% and for Matthew Blagg becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Duncan Whale is +3.3% and for Matthew Blagg is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Whale: 88%, Matthew Blagg: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Whale: 77%, Matthew Blagg: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Blagg: 757, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Duncan Whale: 784, level confidence: 77%.