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Duncan Whale v Mike Lewis (Wed 24 Oct 2018)

Match won by Duncan Whale. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Duncan Whale: 747, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Mike Lewis: 600, level confidence: 68%.
Duncan Whale to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Mike Lewis.

Duncan Whale won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Duncan Whale actually played at a level of 748 and Mike Lewis at a level of 599. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Whale changes to 0% and Mike Lewis changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Whale becomes +0.1% and for Mike Lewis becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Duncan Whale is 0% and for Mike Lewis is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Whale: 78%, Mike Lewis: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Whale: 78%, Mike Lewis: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Whale: 746, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Mike Lewis: 599, level confidence: 83%.