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Richard Webster v Lewi Long (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Richard Webster. Result: 15-6,15-10,15-12.

Starting level for Richard Webster: 841, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Lewi Long: 665, level confidence: 63%.
Richard Webster to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Lewi Long.

Richard Webster won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Webster played 61% better than Lewi Long in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Webster actually played at a level of 948 and Lewi Long at a level of 590. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Webster changes to +11% and Lewi Long changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Webster becomes +7% and for Lewi Long becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Richard Webster is +5.3% and for Lewi Long is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Webster: 73%, Lewi Long: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Webster: 65%, Lewi Long: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Webster: 884, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Lewi Long: 635, level confidence: 70%.