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Patric Russell v Peter Ferguson (Thu 25 Oct 2018)

Match won by Peter Ferguson. Result: 10-15,15-9,14-15,15-9,12-15.

Starting level for Patric Russell: 1,100, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Ferguson: 1,243, level confidence: 39%.
Peter Ferguson to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Patric Russell.

Peter Ferguson won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Ferguson played 6% better than Patric Russell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Ferguson actually played at a level of 1,206 and Patric Russell at a level of 1,134. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Ferguson changes to -2.9% and Patric Russell changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Ferguson becomes -2.6% and for Patric Russell becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Ferguson is -2% and for Patric Russell is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Ferguson: 62%, Patric Russell: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Ferguson: 60%, Patric Russell: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patric Russell: 1,111, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Peter Ferguson: 1,217, level confidence: 60%.