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Nathan Quilliam v Steve Gaylor (Thu 25 Oct 2018)

Match won by Nathan Quilliam. Result: 15-13,15-8,14-15,15-12.

Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,554, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,468, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nathan Quilliam to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Steve Gaylor.

Nathan Quilliam won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Quilliam played 24% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Quilliam actually played at a level of 1,684 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,355. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam changes to +8.1% and Steve Gaylor changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam becomes +4.6% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam is +3.5% and for Steve Gaylor is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Quilliam: 70%, Steve Gaylor: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Quilliam: 65%, Steve Gaylor: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,605, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,431, level confidence: 84%.