David O'Neill v Dafydd Lewis (Thu 25 Oct 2018)
Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 11-15,8-15,15-12,7-15.
Starting level for
David O'Neill:
1,691, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Dafydd Lewis:
1,975, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Dafydd Lewis to win as he is currently playing
17% better than David O'Neill.
Dafydd Lewis won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played
30% better than David O'Neill in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dafydd Lewis actually played at a level of
2,081 and David O'Neill at a level of
1,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to +3.8% and David O'Neill changes to -4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes +2.6% and for David O'Neill becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis is +2% and for David O'Neill is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 92%, David O'Neill: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 87%, David O'Neill: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David O'Neill:
1,649, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Dafydd Lewis:
2,011, level confidence: 87%.