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David Wright v Paul Nieduszynski (Sun 28 Oct 2018)

Match won by Paul Nieduszynski. Result: 2-3.

Starting level for David Wright: 1,981, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,008, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 1% better than David Wright.

Paul Nieduszynski won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Nieduszynski actually played at a level of 2,092 and David Wright at a level of 1,902. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski changes to +3.6% and David Wright changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +2.5% and for David Wright becomes -2.6%.

Given Paul Nieduszynski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski is +1.3% and for David Wright is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nieduszynski: 91%, David Wright: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nieduszynski: 87%, David Wright: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wright: 1,953, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,030, level confidence: 87%.