Ray Owens v Jeremy Wright (Sun 28 Oct 2018)
Match won by Jeremy Wright. Result: 1-3.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
267, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jeremy Wright:
279, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Jeremy Wright to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Ray Owens.
Jeremy Wright won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Wright actually played at a level of
305 and Ray Owens at a level of
244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7.3%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Wright changes to +6.8% and Ray Owens changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Wright becomes +4.9% and for Ray Owens becomes -5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Jeremy Wright is +2.4% and for Ray Owens is -2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Wright: 91%, Ray Owens: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Wright: 83%, Ray Owens: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ray Owens:
260, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jeremy Wright:
285, level confidence: 83%.