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David Wallond v Gary Kershaw (Sat 27 Oct 2018)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 11-3,4-11,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for David Wallond: 3,069, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gary Kershaw: 1,700, level confidence: 43%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Gary Kershaw.

David Wallond won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 27% better than Gary Kershaw in this match.

As David Wallond has played below his allowed range at 2,311, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that David Wallond would normally have been playing at level 2,786 (based on typical behaviour), Gary Kershaw played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to -3% and Gary Kershaw changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes -2% and for Gary Kershaw becomes +5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is -1.5% and for Gary Kershaw is +3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 84%, Gary Kershaw: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 70%, Gary Kershaw: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wallond: 3,019, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Gary Kershaw: 1,763, level confidence: 55%.