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Mohamed Elsherbini v Mario Yanez (Fri 26 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 12-14,11-6,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 34,164, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mario Yanez: 20,765, level confidence: 66%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Mario Yanez.

Mohamed Elsherbini won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 30% better than Mario Yanez in this match.

As Mohamed Elsherbini has played below his allowed range at 28,304, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elsherbini would normally have been playing at level 31,822 (based on typical behaviour), Mario Yanez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -3.2% and Mario Yanez changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -1.2% and for Mario Yanez becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Boston Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 87%, Mario Yanez: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 77%, Mario Yanez: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 33,715, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Mario Yanez: 21,275, level confidence: 72%.