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Sam Osborne v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 30 Oct 2018)

Match won by Sam Osborne. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Sam Osborne: 1,447, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,003, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Sam Osborne.

Sam Osborne won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Osborne actually played at a level of 1,903 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of 1,523. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 20%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Osborne changes to +20% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Osborne becomes +9.8% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -7.3%.

Given Paul Nieduszynski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Sam Osborne is +4.9% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Osborne: 85%, Paul Nieduszynski: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Osborne: 64%, Paul Nieduszynski: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Osborne: 1,515, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 1,960, level confidence: 70%.