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Rob Andrews v Nick Hiley (Tue 30 Oct 2018)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 7-11,9-11,14-12,11-13.

Starting level for Rob Andrews: 1,746, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,123, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Nick Hiley to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Rob Andrews.

Nick Hiley won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 22% better than Rob Andrews in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Hiley was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,714 and 4,123 without affecting his level.

As Nick Hiley has played below his allowed range at 2,400, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Hiley would normally have been playing at level 3,424 (based on typical behaviour), Rob Andrews played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to -2.9% and Rob Andrews changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes -1.8% and for Rob Andrews becomes +7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Durham & Cleveland Mens Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is -1.3% and for Rob Andrews is +5.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 84%, Rob Andrews: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 60%, Rob Andrews: 36%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Andrews: 1,845, level confidence: 36%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,064, level confidence: 60%.