John Hughes v Stuart Rank (Tue 30 Oct 2018)
Match won by John Hughes. Result: 15-9,15-5,15-7.
Starting level for
John Hughes:
1,863, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stuart Rank:
1,464, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
John Hughes to win as he is currently playing
27% better than Stuart Rank.
John Hughes won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Hughes played
114% better than Stuart Rank in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Hughes actually played at a level of
2,418 and Stuart Rank at a level of
1,128. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Hughes changes to +22% and Stuart Rank changes to -26%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Hughes becomes +9.4% and for Stuart Rank becomes -12%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for John Hughes is +7.1% and for Stuart Rank is -8.6%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stuart Rank is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Hughes: 91%, Stuart Rank: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Hughes: 70%, Stuart Rank: 64%.
Final level for John Hughes:
1,995, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Stuart Rank:
1,394, level confidence: 64%.