SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Chirag Shah v Matthew Marshall (Tue 30 Oct 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 7-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Chirag Shah: 8,183, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,254, level confidence: 61%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Chirag Shah.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 94% better than Chirag Shah in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 11,450 and Chirag Shah at a level of 5,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +16% and Chirag Shah changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +4.7% and for Chirag Shah becomes -9.8%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chirag Shah's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +3.2% and for Chirag Shah is -6.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 78%, Chirag Shah: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 56%, Chirag Shah: 36%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chirag Shah: 7,714, level confidence: 36%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,536, level confidence: 56%.