Rosie Lee v Peter Richardson (Mon 29 Oct 2018)
Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 14-16,10-15,12-15.
Starting level for
Rosie Lee:
1,891, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Peter Richardson:
2,294, level confidence: 53%.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Rosie Lee.
Peter Richardson won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played
37% better than Rosie Lee in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Richardson actually played at a level of
2,436 and Rosie Lee at a level of
1,781. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to +5.6% and Rosie Lee changes to -4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes +3.1% and for Rosie Lee becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is +2.4% and for Rosie Lee is -2.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 73%, Rosie Lee: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 69%, Rosie Lee: 74%.
Final level for Rosie Lee:
1,849, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Peter Richardson:
2,348, level confidence: 69%.