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Phil Yerby v Matthew Marshall (Wed 31 Oct 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 10-12,8-11,6-11.

Starting level for Phil Yerby: 6,333, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,608, level confidence: 56%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Phil Yerby.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 46% better than Phil Yerby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 8,923 and Phil Yerby at a level of 6,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +3.1% and Phil Yerby changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +1.6% and for Phil Yerby becomes -1.2%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Given Phil Yerby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +1% and for Phil Yerby is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 75%, Phil Yerby: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 72%, Phil Yerby: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Yerby: 6,294, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 8,719, level confidence: 72%.