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Derek Bray v Paul Nieduszynski (Wed 31 Oct 2018)

Match won by Paul Nieduszynski. Result: 5-15,9-15,7-15.

Starting level for Derek Bray: 1,421, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 1,968, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Derek Bray.

Paul Nieduszynski won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Nieduszynski played 114% better than Derek Bray in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Nieduszynski actually played at a level of 2,448 and Derek Bray at a level of 1,142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski changes to +16% and Derek Bray changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +6.9% and for Derek Bray becomes -9.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski is +5.2% and for Derek Bray is -7.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Derek Bray is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nieduszynski: 90%, Derek Bray: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nieduszynski: 73%, Derek Bray: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Derek Bray: 1,351, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,068, level confidence: 73%.