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Harry Carr v Matthew Marshall (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 10-12,11-7,2-11,5-11.

Starting level for Harry Carr: 7,368, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 8,964, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Harry Carr.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 32% better than Harry Carr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 9,340 and Harry Carr at a level of 7,072. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +3.8% and Harry Carr changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +1.7% and for Harry Carr becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Bucks County Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 87%, Harry Carr: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 83%, Harry Carr: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Carr: 7,257, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,141, level confidence: 83%.