SquashLevels calculations
Oscar Hill v James Bayliss (Thu 18 Oct 2018)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
4,213, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Bayliss:
1,298, level confidence: 57%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
225% better than James Bayliss.
Oscar Hill won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
175% better than James Bayliss in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oscar Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,242 and 4,213 without affecting his level.
In this case, Oscar Hill played at level 3,570 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, James Bayliss is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 88%, James Bayliss: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 81%, James Bayliss: 70%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
4,213, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Bayliss:
1,298, level confidence: 70%.