Paul Boyle v Matthew Marshall (Sun 04 Nov 2018)
Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-6,4-11,9-11,11-7,6-11.
Starting level for
Paul Boyle:
8,831, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
9,147, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Paul Boyle.
Matthew Marshall won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played
11% better than Paul Boyle in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of
9,450 and Paul Boyle at a level of
8,548. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +1.7% and Paul Boyle changes to -3.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +0.9% and for Paul Boyle becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Bucks County Closed' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 91%, Paul Boyle: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 88%, Paul Boyle: 64%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Boyle:
8,712, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
9,251, level confidence: 88%.