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Tsz Fung Yip v Syed Azlan Amjad (Sun 28 Oct 2018)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,512, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Syed Azlan Amjad: 11,453, level confidence: 55%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 236% better than Syed Azlan Amjad.

Tsz Fung Yip won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 83% better than Syed Azlan Amjad in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tsz Fung Yip was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,817 and 38,512 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tsz Fung Yip played at level 24,085 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tsz Fung Yip would normally have been playing at level 27,626 (based on typical behaviour), Syed Azlan Amjad played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to 0% and Syed Azlan Amjad changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes 0% and for Syed Azlan Amjad becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 86%, Syed Azlan Amjad: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 64%, Syed Azlan Amjad: 55%.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 38,512, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Syed Azlan Amjad: 11,747, level confidence: 55%.