Mohamed Elshorbagy v Tsz Fung Yip (Mon 29 Oct 2018)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-3,11-9,6-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
63,877, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
38,397, level confidence: 63%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
66% better than Tsz Fung Yip.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
24% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 51,216, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 59,329 (based on typical behaviour), Tsz Fung Yip played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 8.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -5.8% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to +8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.6% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes +2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Tsz Fung Yip: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66%, Tsz Fung Yip: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
62,823, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
39,321, level confidence: 69%.