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Steve Gaylor v Steven Morley (Mon 05 Nov 2018)

Match won by Steven Morley. Result: 3-11,4-11,10-11.

Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,431, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Morley: 1,807, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Steven Morley to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Steve Gaylor.

Steven Morley won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Morley played 94% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Morley actually played at a level of 2,240 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,154. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Morley changes to +21% and Steve Gaylor changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Morley becomes +9.2% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -9.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steven Morley is +6.9% and for Steve Gaylor is -6.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Gaylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Morley: 86%, Steve Gaylor: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Morley: 69%, Steve Gaylor: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,361, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Steven Morley: 1,929, level confidence: 69%.