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Walid Hadid v David Wallond (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 9-15,5-15,8-15.

Starting level for Walid Hadid: 1,650, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,976, level confidence: 68%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Walid Hadid.

David Wallond won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 105% better than Walid Hadid in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,169 and Walid Hadid at a level of 1,549. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +4.6% and Walid Hadid changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +2.6% and for Walid Hadid becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +1.9% and for Walid Hadid is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 82%, Walid Hadid: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 77%, Walid Hadid: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Walid Hadid: 1,609, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for David Wallond: 3,029, level confidence: 77%.