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Peter Richardson v John Andrew Lawrie (Tue 06 Nov 2018)

Match won by John Andrew Lawrie. Result: 9-15,17-15,11-15,12-15.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,348, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for John Andrew Lawrie: 2,630, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
John Andrew Lawrie to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Peter Richardson.

John Andrew Lawrie won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Andrew Lawrie played 24% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Andrew Lawrie actually played at a level of 2,769 and Peter Richardson at a level of 2,230. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Andrew Lawrie changes to +4.7% and Peter Richardson changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Andrew Lawrie becomes +2.7% and for Peter Richardson becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for John Andrew Lawrie is +2% and for Peter Richardson is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Andrew Lawrie: 84%, Peter Richardson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Andrew Lawrie: 80%, Peter Richardson: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,296, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for John Andrew Lawrie: 2,681, level confidence: 80%.