SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Bryn Taylor v Shaun Mizen (Tue 06 Nov 2018)

Match won by Bryn Taylor. Result: 15-13,17-15,15-10.

Starting level for Bryn Taylor: 1,781, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,577, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Shaun Mizen to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Bryn Taylor.

Bryn Taylor won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bryn Taylor played 34% better than Shaun Mizen in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bryn Taylor actually played at a level of 2,480 and Shaun Mizen at a level of 1,851. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bryn Taylor changes to +31% and Shaun Mizen changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bryn Taylor becomes +12.6% and for Shaun Mizen becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Bryn Taylor is +9.4% and for Shaun Mizen is -8.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Shaun Mizen is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bryn Taylor: 93%, Shaun Mizen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bryn Taylor: 67%, Shaun Mizen: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bryn Taylor: 1,948, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,452, level confidence: 65%.