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Jake Ireland v Henry Brown (Tue 06 Nov 2018)

Match won by Jake Ireland. Result: 15-11,15-8,15-11.

Starting level for Jake Ireland: 2,437, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Henry Brown: 1,809, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Jake Ireland to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Henry Brown.

Jake Ireland won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jake Ireland played 52% better than Henry Brown in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jake Ireland actually played at a level of 2,586 and Henry Brown at a level of 1,705. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jake Ireland changes to +5.2% and Henry Brown changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jake Ireland becomes +2.9% and for Henry Brown becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Jake Ireland is +2.2% and for Henry Brown is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jake Ireland: 88%, Henry Brown: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jake Ireland: 83%, Henry Brown: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jake Ireland: 2,487, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Henry Brown: 1,765, level confidence: 86%.