Paul Garbutt v Steve Loveless (Fri 09 Nov 2018)
Match won by Steve Loveless. Result: 11-15,15-11,6-15,15-11,14-16.
Starting level for
Paul Garbutt:
2,120, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for
Steve Loveless:
1,601, level confidence: 63%.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Steve Loveless.
Steve Loveless won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Loveless played
10% better than Paul Garbutt in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Loveless actually played at a level of
1,935 and Paul Garbutt at a level of
1,754. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Loveless changes to +7.5% and Paul Garbutt changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Loveless becomes +4.3% and for Paul Garbutt becomes -7.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steve Loveless is +3.3% and for Paul Garbutt is -5.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Loveless: 79%, Paul Garbutt: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Loveless: 65%, Paul Garbutt: 42%.
A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Garbutt:
2,060, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Steve Loveless:
1,651, level confidence: 65%.