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Leon Gelderblom v Matthew Marshall (Fri 09 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 3-11,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Leon Gelderblom: 2,387, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,906, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 315% better than Leon Gelderblom.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 106% better than Leon Gelderblom in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Marshall was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,920 and 9,906 without affecting his level.

In this case, Matthew Marshall played at level 5,600 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 6,371 (based on typical behaviour), Leon Gelderblom played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to 0% and Leon Gelderblom changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes 0% and for Leon Gelderblom becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Midlands Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is 0% and for Leon Gelderblom is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 87%, Leon Gelderblom: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 61%, Leon Gelderblom: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leon Gelderblom: 2,457, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,891, level confidence: 61%.