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Dave Downman v David Wallond (Sat 10 Nov 2018)

Match won by Dave Downman. Result: 7-11,2-11,11-7,11-1,11-8.

Starting level for Dave Downman: 3,394, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,021, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Dave Downman to win as he is currently playing 12% better than David Wallond.

Dave Downman won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Downman played 10% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Downman actually played at a level of 3,360 and David Wallond at a level of 3,051. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Downman changes to -0.9% and David Wallond changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Downman becomes -0.6% and for David Wallond becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dave Downman is -0.4% and for David Wallond is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Downman: 94%, David Wallond: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Downman: 93%, David Wallond: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Downman: 3,374, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for David Wallond: 3,031, level confidence: 91%.