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Tim Burrell v Matthew Marshall (Sat 10 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 7-11,6-11,3-11.

Starting level for Tim Burrell: 6,604, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,799, level confidence: 61%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Tim Burrell.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 106% better than Tim Burrell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 11,553 and Tim Burrell at a level of 5,601. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +14% and Tim Burrell changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +4.2% and for Tim Burrell becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Midlands Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +3.8% and for Tim Burrell is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 78%, Tim Burrell: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 66%, Tim Burrell: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Burrell: 6,462, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 10,156, level confidence: 66%.